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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to the capital and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

Mamdani addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd