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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.