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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."